Enponential Roadmap

Book chapter, 2019

The 2019 Exponential Roadmap focuses on moving from incremental to exponential climate action in the next decade. It presents 36 economically- viable solutions to cut global greenhouse gas emissions 50% by 2030 and the strategies to scale this transformation.

The roadmap is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep global average temperature “well below 2°C” and aiming for 1.5°C above pre- industrial levels.

The 2019 roadmap is the second in the series. Each new roadmap updates solutions that have proven potential to scale and charts progress towards exponential scaling. The roadmap, based on the carbon law (see box) is a collaboration between academia, business and civil society.

The roadmap is complemented with a high-ambition narrative, Meeting the 1.5°C Ambition, that presents the case why holding global average temperature increase to just 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is important. Since the first roadmap, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its special report on 1.5°C. The report concluded that the economic and humanitarian risks of a 2°C world are significantly higher than 1.5°C.

The remaining emissions budget for 1.5°C is small, and will be exceeded within ten to fifteen years at current emission rates. The window of feasibility is closing rapidly.

The global economic benefit of a low-carbon future is estimated at US$26 trillion by 2030 compared with staying on the current high-carbon pathway.

The scale of transformation – halving emissions by 2030 – is unprecedented but the speed is not. Some cities and companies can transform significantly faster.

Developed nations with significant historic emissions have a responsibility to reduce emissions faster.
Greenhouse gas emissions, and the solutions to reduce them, are grouped by six sectors: energy, industry, transport, buildings, food consumption, nature-based solutions (sources and sinks).

Meeting the 1.5°C goal means implementing solutions in parallel across all sectors.

The solutions must scale exponentially. The roadmap identifies four levers required to scale the transformation as well as necessary actions for each: policy, climate leadership and movements, finance and exponential technology.

Implementation must be fair and just or risk deep resistance.