Medium-Term Electricity Market Price Forecasting: A Data-driven Approach
Paper i proceeding, 2010

Medium-term electricity price forecasting is necessary for several applications in electricity markets, such as pricing derivatives, maintenance scheduling for generation companies, and budgeting and fuel contracting. However, this is a complex task because of the inherent dependence of price to other sometimes unpredictable variables, such as variations in availability of different supply resources. This paper presents two regression-based linear forecasting models to predict the monthly average of electricity spot prices in deregulated electricity markets, with specific focus on systems with large penetration of hydro generation units. The forecasting horizon is a full year, i.e., the models are used to generate 12-month-ahead forecasts. Numerical results are provided for Nord Pool market.

Författare

Shahab Torghaban

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Elkraftteknik

Hamidreza Zareipour

University of Calgary

Anh Tuan Le

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Elkraftteknik

42nd North American Power Symposium, Arlington, USA, September 26-28, 2010

5618960

Ämneskategorier

Annan elektroteknik och elektronik

DOI

10.1109/NAPS.2010.5618960

ISBN

978-142448046-3