Economic Project Risk Assessment for Sustainable Choice Of REmediation (SCORE) in Construction Projects

Licentiatavhandling, 2014

Contamination of soil and/or groundwater is a problem all over the world. There is a desire from politicians and the supervisory authorities to tackle the contamination problem in order to protect future generations. Remediation, in the past considered sustainable in itself has in recent years been debated in regard to the possible negative effects such as greenhouse gas, dust emission, waste generation and risks of traffic accidents. Construction companies come into contact with contamination in various kinds of projects, e.g. construction of houses, roads and bridges. Remediation projects are high-risk projects due to the many uncertainties regarding issues such as scope, quality, time and cost and an inability to handle them. This thesis presents a Project Risk Assessment (PRA) method, based on the established ISO standard of risk management, developed for project owners, e.g. construction companies. The method identifies, quantifies, analyses and evaluates project risks in remediation projects. The suggested method is probabilistic and includes uncertainty analysis of input variables based on expert judgment. A stepwise procedure and a computer based tool (PRA tool) were developed to facilitate the project risk assessment. The PRA method was developed within a sustainability assessment framework called SCORE (Sustainable Choice Of REmediation), but is also viable as a standalone tool for remediation projects. Assessment of project risks in monetary terms is part of a company’s financial analysis and in SCORE it is included in the economic domain as part of a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of societal profitability. PRA and SCORE are in line with current trends and work on sustainability in construction companies, such as the use of certification systems like BREEAM, LEED and CEEQUAL. The PRA method is applied on a case study: an old paint factory which is being redeveloped into a residential area. The result of the case study application shows which alternative has the lowest mean risk cost, the highest probability to have the lowest risk cost and how the risk costs are distributed among the project risk categories. In addition, most importantly, helps the user to prioritise between risk-reducing measures. The PRA is a structured and transparent method for handling project risks and an important part of a sustainability assessment of remediation alternatives. It is beneficial to the risk management team in remediation projects and could in the future advantageously be further developed for use in larger infrastructure projects.