Induced urban and regional spatial development from a "ferry-free E39". A state of the art review and a proposal for theoretical and methodological development
Rapport, 2014

The main reason for an investment in a “ferry-free E39” is regional and urban development. Today´s models and tools for cost/benefit analysis don´t account for: (i) Induced spatial development – i.e. longer term generation and redistribution of housing, business, commerce, industry and terminals - manifested in new buildings and facilities (ii) How resulting land-use shifts in turn lead to induced travel and freight transports – i.e. VMT This research project proposal addresses this problem in three ways: 1. A longer - run GIS model traces how major road investments between, around and trough Norwegian cities have induced new buildings (industry, offices, homes etc.) and what kind of activities – branches - that take place in those buildings over a multi-year time horizon. 2. Comparisons with impacts from similar projects like Öresundsbron. 3. A Markov chain stochastic model that replicates the historic development process and forecast future induced spatial development in a random process usually characterized as “memory-less”: the next state depends only on the current state and not on the sequence of events that preceded it. The aim for the research proposal is to develop: • A cost efficient integrated GIS-based method for database handling, mapping and analysis of huge amounts of disaggregated data. • Flow charts and standardization of data that describes the process from existing data sources to automatic analyzers and decided outcomes. The research philosophy is to: • See urban and regional development as complex system that changes from bottom up – not top down

Road investment


Norwegian Public Roads Administration

Statens Vegvesen

induced urban and regional spatial development

Chalmers Open Innovation Networks (COINS)



Anders Hagson

Chalmers, Arkitektur

Claes Andersson

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Fysisk resursteori


Building Futures