Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2019

Transport is an important part of society, and its future is influenced by a number of developments, such as of technology, environmental regulations and societal behaviour. This paper presents a scenario analysis from a Delphi survey focusing on future goods transport in Sweden in 2050 using experts from industry, academia and government. Our results show divergent views of the future of goods transport, with experts having widely different opinions on subjects such as consumer behaviour, which technologies will be dominant, how goods will be transported on main roads and in urban areas, and the role of policy and public investments. The experts, however, share views on the high desirability of improvements connected to sustainability. The study points to great uncertainties of future developments in goods transport, which have implications for the need for interaction and dialogue between actors in industry, academia and government and opens up for further research.