Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2019

Transport is an important part of society, and its future is influenced by a number of developments, such as of technology, environmental regulations and societal behaviour. This paper presents a scenario analysis from a Delphi survey focusing on future goods transport in Sweden in 2050 using experts from industry, academia and government. Our results show divergent views of the future of goods transport, with experts having widely different opinions on subjects such as consumer behaviour, which technologies will be dominant, how goods will be transported on main roads and in urban areas, and the role of policy and public investments. The experts, however, share views on the high desirability of improvements connected to sustainability. The study points to great uncertainties of future developments in goods transport, which have implications for the need for interaction and dialogue between actors in industry, academia and government and opens up for further research.

Future

Delphi method

Goods transport

Sustainability

Författare

Lisa Melander

Chalmers, Teknikens ekonomi och organisation, Supply and Operations Management

Anna Dubois

Chalmers, Teknikens ekonomi och organisation, Supply and Operations Management

Klas Hedvall

Chalmers, Teknikens ekonomi och organisation, Supply and Operations Management

Frida Lind

Chalmers, Teknikens ekonomi och organisation, Supply and Operations Management

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

0040-1625 (ISSN)

Vol. 138 178-189

Effektivt underhåll för hållbara transportlösningar (EMATS)

VINNOVA, 2015-04-01 -- 2018-03-31.

Volvo Group, 2016-01-01 -- 2016-12-31.

Drivkrafter

Hållbar utveckling

Styrkeområden

Transport

Ämneskategorier

Energiteknik

Transportteknik och logistik

Infrastrukturteknik

Ekonomi och näringsliv

Farkostteknik

DOI

10.1016/j.techfore.2018.08.019

Mer information

Senast uppdaterat

2019-11-29