Towards Intelligent Distribution Systems: Solutions for Congestion Forecast and Dynamic State Estimation Based Protection
Licentiatavhandling, 2021

The electrical distribution systems are undergoing drastic changes such as increasing penetration level of distributed renewable energy sources, energy storage, electrification of energy-efficient loads such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, etc., since the last decade, and more changes are expected in the future. These changes pose challenges for the distribution system operators such as increased level of network congestions, voltage variations, as well as protection settings and coordination, etc. These will require the development of new paradigms to operate distribution systems securely, safely, and economically while hosting a large amount of renewable energy sources.

First, the thesis proposed a comprehensive assessment framework to assess the distribution system operator’s future-readiness and support them in determining the current status of their network infrastructures, business models, and policies and thus to identify areas for required developments. The analysis for the future-readiness of the three distribution system operators (from France, The Netherlands, and Sweden) using the proposed assessment framework has shown that presently the distribution system operators have a rather small penetration of renewable energy sources in their grids, however, which is expected to increase in the future. The distribution system operators would need investments in flexibilities, novel forecasting techniques, advanced grid control as well as improved protection schemes. The need for the development of new business models for customers and changes in the policy and regulations are also suggested by the analysis.

Second, the thesis developed a congestion forecast tool that would support the distribution system operators to forecast and visualize network overloading and voltage variations issues for multiple forecasting horizons ranging from close-to-real time to day-ahead. The tool is based on a probabilistic power flow that incorporates forecasts of production from solar photovoltaic and electricity demand combined with load models along with the consideration of different operating modes of solar photovoltaic inverters to enhance the accuracy. The congestion forecast tool can be integrated into the existing distribution management systems of distribution system operators via an open cross-platform using Codex Smart Edge technology of Atos Worldgrid. The congestion forecast tool has been used in a case study for two real distribution systems (7-bus feeder and 141-bus system). It was demonstrated in the case study that the tool can predict the congestion in the networks with various prediction horizons. The congestion forecast tool would support distribution system operators by forecasting the network congestion and setting up a congestion management plan.

Finally, the dynamic state estimation based protection scheme supported by advanced measurement technologies developed within EU project UNITED-GRID has been implemented and validated experimentally at Chalmers power system laboratory. This dynamic state estimation based protection scheme has a strong advantage over the traditional protection scheme as it does not require any relay settings and coordination which can overcome the protection challenges arising in distribution grids with a large amount of renewable energy sources. The results from the validation of the dynamic state estimation based protection scheme at Chalmers laboratory have shown that the fault detection using this scheme has worked properly as expected for an application of the line protection.


probabilistic power flow

distribution system operator


distribution systems protection


dynamic state estimation

future distribution systems

Congestion forecast

Online - please e-mail in advance to get the password
Opponent: Dr. Antonios Papaemmanouil, Lucerne University of Applied Sciences (HSLU), Switzerland.


Ankur Srivastava

Chalmers, Elektroteknik, Elkraftteknik, Elnät och komponenter

A Congestion Forecast Framework for Distribution Systems with High Penetration of PV and PEVs

IEEE PES PowerTech Conference 2019,; (2019)

Paper i proceeding

Chalmers Campus as a Testbed for Intelligent Grids and Local Energy Systems

IEEE International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and Technologies (SEST),; (2019)

Paper i proceeding

Integrated cyber-physical solutions for intelligent distribution grid with high penetration of renewables (UNITED-GRID)

Europeiska kommissionen (EU), 2017-11-01 -- 2020-04-30.





Annan elektroteknik och elektronik


Chalmers tekniska högskola

Online - please e-mail in advance to get the password


Opponent: Dr. Antonios Papaemmanouil, Lucerne University of Applied Sciences (HSLU), Switzerland.

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