National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2021

Climate mitigation scenarios envision considerable growth of wind and solar power, but scholars disagree on how this growth compares with historical trends. Here we fit growth models to wind and solar trajectories to identify countries in which growth has already stabilized after the initial acceleration. National growth has followed S-curves to reach maximum annual rates of 0.8% (interquartile range of 0.6–1.1%) of the total electricity supply for onshore wind and 0.6% (0.4–0.9%) for solar. In comparison, one-half of 1.5 °C-compatible scenarios envision global growth of wind power above 1.3% and of solar power above 1.4%, while one-quarter of these scenarios envision global growth of solar above 3.3% per year. Replicating or exceeding the fastest national growth globally may be challenging because, so far, countries that introduced wind and solar power later have not achieved higher maximum growth rates, despite their generally speedier progression through the technology adoption cycle.


Aleh Cherp

Közép-Európai Egyetem

Lunds universitet

Vadim Vinichenko

Universitetet i Bergen

Jale Tosun

Universität Heidelberg

Joel A. Gordon

Közép-Európai Egyetem

Cranfield University

Jessica Jewell

Chalmers, Rymd-, geo- och miljövetenskap, Fysisk resursteori

Universitetet i Bergen

Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse

Nature Energy

20587546 (eISSN)

Vol. 6 7 742-754


Hållbar utveckling


Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning


Annan elektroteknik och elektronik





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