On the role of forests and the forest sector for climate change mitigation in Sweden
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2022

We analyse the short- and long-term consequences for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations of forest management strategies and forest product uses in Sweden by comparing the modelled consequences of forest resource use vs. increased conservation at different levels of GHG savings from carbon sequestration and product substitution with bioenergy and other forest products. Increased forest set-asides for conservation resulted in larger GHG reductions only in the short term and only when substitution effects were low. In all other cases, forest use was more beneficial. In all scenarios, annual carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration rates declined in conservation forests as they mature, eventually approaching a steady state. Forest set-asides are thus associated with increasing opportunity costs corresponding to foregone wood production and associated mitigation losses. Substitution and sequestration rates under all other forest management strategies rise, providing support for sustained harvest and cumulative mitigation gains. The impact of increased fertilization was everywhere beneficial to the climate and surpassed the mitigation potential of the other scenarios. Climate change can have large—positive or negative—influence on outcomes. Despite uncertainties, the results indicate potentially large benefits from forest use for wood production. These benefits, however, are not clearly linked with forestry in UNFCCC reporting, and the European Union's Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry carbon accounting, framework may even prevent their full realization. These reporting and accounting frameworks may further have the consequence of encouraging land set-asides and reduced forest use at the expense of future biomass production. Further, carbon leakage and resulting biodiversity impacts due to increased use of more GHG-intensive products, including imported products associated with deforestation and land degradation, are inadequately assessed. Considerable opportunity to better mobilize the climate change mitigation potential of Swedish forests therefore remains.

mitigation

conservation

LULUCF

adaptation

substitution

forest

land set-asides

Författare

Hans Petersson

Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU)

David Ellison

Universität Bern

Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU)

Ellison Consulting

Alex Appiah Mensah

Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU)

Göran Berndes

Chalmers, Rymd-, geo- och miljövetenskap, Fysisk resursteori

Gustaf Egnell

Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU)

Mattias Lundblad

Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU)

Tomas Lundmark

Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU)

Anders Lundström

Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU)

Johan Stendahl

Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU)

Per Erik Wikberg

Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU)

GCB Bioenergy

1757-1693 (ISSN) 1757-1707 (eISSN)

Vol. In Press

Ämneskategorier

Jordbruksvetenskap

Annan naturresursteknik

Skogsvetenskap

DOI

10.1111/gcbb.12943

Mer information

Senast uppdaterat

2022-05-05