Probabilistic Prediction of Collisions between Cyclists and Vehicles Based on Uncertainty of Cyclists’ Movements
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2023

The uncertainty of cyclists’ movements has a significant impact on predicting the risk of collisions between cyclists and vehicles. The purpose of this study was to provide a method for assessing collision risk using probability, taking into account the uncertainty of cyclists’ movements. A cyclist model was first developed using a first-order Markov model. Then, based on Monte Carlo sampling, the distribution characteristics of the minimum distance and the time-to-collision (TTC) between the vehicle and the cyclist were extracted. By fitting these features, the probability density functions of the collision distance and TTC were estimated to derive the collision probabilities. The effectiveness of the collision probability prediction model was benchmarked against a deterministic crash risk prediction model (autonomous emergency braking [AEB] system) applied to three real-world cases previously reconstructed in an in-depth crash database. The results show that the collision probability prediction model can effectively predict the risk of collisions between cyclists and vehicles with better accuracy than AEB systems using a fixed trigger threshold. This study is a valuable reference for the development of advanced vehicle collision avoidance systems to protect cyclists and other vulnerable road users.

Monte Carlo

probability distribution

bicyclist

uncertainty

collision risk

Författare

Di Pan

Xiamen University

Xiamen University of Technology

Yong Han

Xiamen University of Technology

Qianqian Jin

Xiamen University of Technology

Jin Kan

Xiamen University of Technology

Hongwu Huang

Xiamen University

Xiamen University of Technology

Koji Mizuno

Nagoya University

Robert Thomson

Chalmers, Mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Fordonssäkerhet

Transportation Research Record

0361-1981 (ISSN) 21694052 (eISSN)

Vol. 2677 3 1151-1164

Ämneskategorier

Infrastrukturteknik

Farkostteknik

DOI

10.1177/03611981221121270

Mer information

Senast uppdaterat

2023-05-09