The cost of phasing out coal: Identifying and overcoming socio-political barriers
Licentiatavhandling, 2023
This dissertation contributes to the debates around feasibility and fairness of coal phase-out through two major avenues. First, it identifies that coal phase-out affects three interconnected systems: the technological system of coal power generation to be phased out, the industrial system comprised of coal companies that needs to adapt to coal phase-out, and regions heavily reliant on the coal industry that need to reorient. This dissertation develops a framework that allows researchers to diagnose the key socio-political mechanisms depending on the phase of decline each system is in and proposes policy sequencing of different strategies over time to decouple the decline of industry and regions from the decline of the technology. Second, inspired by the recent application of Daniel Kahnemann’s “inside” and “outside view” to climate science, this dissertation studies existing coal phase-out commitments and just transition strategies as reference cases to better understand the socio-political feasibility of coal phase-out in climate mitigation scenarios. It finds that while coal phase-out commitments have diffused to countries with larger shares of coal in their electricity mix, accelerated policy-driven coal phase-out commitments tend to be accompanied by just transition strategies. Implementing similar just transition strategies in the two countries with the largest coal fleets globally, China and India, in line with 1.5°C -2°C IPCC scenarios might require most, if not all, of the $100 billion annual climate finance pledged by Global North countries.
This dissertation contributes to better understanding key socio-political mechanisms affecting coal phase-out and proposes a quantitative approach to measure what it takes to overcome them, thus enabling a more informed debate on the effectiveness and fairness of compensation schemes as well as an opportunity to incorporate socio-political feasibility into climate mitigation models. Future research on the cost and management of just transition strategies is required as these strategies are at very early stages of implementation, and more reference cases added as new strategies emerge. Additionally, similar strategies and financial compensation accompanying past decline episodes may shed further light on the cost of accelerated coal phase-out.
Feasibility
Socio-political feasibility
Energy transitions
Coal phase-out
Författare
Lola Nacke
Chalmers, Rymd-, geo- och miljövetenskap, Fysisk resursteori
Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns
Environmental Research Letters,;Vol. 18(2023)
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Phases of fossil fuel decline: Diagnostic framework for policy sequencing and feasible transition pathways in resource dependent regions
Oxford Open Energy,;Vol. 1(2022)
Reviewartikel
Nacke, L., Vinichenko, V., Cherp, A., Jakhmola, A., Jewell, J. Socio-political cost of accelerating coal phase-out, 18 April 2023, PREPRINT (Version 1) available at Research Square [https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2733550/v1].
Drivkrafter
Hållbar utveckling
Styrkeområden
Energi
Ämneskategorier
Energisystem
Utgivare
Chalmers
Sal EF, Hörsalsvägen 11, Chalmers Johanneberg.
Opponent: Prof. Jan Steckel, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Germany