Modeling of PEMEL hydrogen production systems: Comprehensive multivariate sensitivity analysis considering mass-energy dynamic equilibrium

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2025

The proton exchange membrane electrolyzer (PEMEL) system offers significant advantages for utilizing renewable energy for hydrogen production, owing to its high efficiency and wide operating range. However, the current research mainly focuses on optimizing the stack and overlooking the modeling of nonlinear behavioral characteristics and sensitivity analysis related to the dynamics of the mass and energy transfer process at the system level. Thus, this paper proposes a method for dynamically modeling and conducting multivariate parameter sensitivity analysis of the PEMEL hydrogen production system, considering the mass-energy equilibrium. Temperature, pressure, water discharge, and other factors are integrated to model the PEMEL hydrogen production system based on the Balance of Plant (BoP). System efficiency, system power, and power consumption per unit of hydrogen production are utilized as performance indicators. To verify the model's feasibility, the output characteristics were compared with the experimental results from both stack and system levels, yielding a Coefficient of Determination (R-squared) exceeding 97 %, which indicates a strong fit between simulation and reality. Subsequently, three sensitivity analysis methods, Taguchi method, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Pareto analysis, were employed to determine the contribution of different parameters to the key system performance indicators and identify the optimal operating combination. Orthogonal arrays and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) analysis facilitated this assessment. Results reveal that the operating temperature had the highest contribution to system efficiency and power consumption per unit of hydrogen production, reaching 69.48 % and 70.09 %, with the standardized effect far exceeding the minimum threshold of 2.069. Pressure holds the highest influence on the system power, at 77.98 %. Finally, within the operational feasibility domain of the system, the calculation ensured that power consumption per unit of hydrogen production remains below 4.7 kW·h/m3.