Shipping fuel pathways in a changing climate: A prospective foresight study for 2050

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2025

This study examines fuel use and environmental impact of shipping industry on Baltic Sea. It focuses on assessing the effects of environmental regulations and proposing decarbonisation scenarios while regulating the SOx and NOx emissions. The abatement measures and alternative fuels as replacements for high-sulphur and carbon-intensive fuels (HFO) are evaluated through technology availability, maturity, fuel price, energy mix and regulation. In the short term, HFO with scrubbers is considered cost-effective, but alternate fuels are expected to replace it with tighter regulations. Liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has zero SOx emission and competitive price range of 230–955 euro per ton, can only be considered as transitional fuel due to methane slip issues limiting its contribution to decarbonisation. For the long term, methanol, hydrogen, and ammonia are potential solutions for achieving SOx free emissions and meeting decarbonisation targets with best possible share of 30 %, 35 % and 35 % respectively. In case of greener fuels, price range varies from 350 to 995 euro/t for ammonia, 100–600 euro/t for hydrogen, and 300–700 euro/t for methanol in 2050, with minimum capex value of 200–400 euro/kW for methanol. Scaling up methanol and advancing hydrogen and ammonia technologies require significant industry and regulatory efforts to achieve the 2050 emission reduction targets of net zero emissions.