Future bioenergy production and trade flows in Europe - an energy-economy model based assessment

Konferensbidrag (offentliggjort, men ej förlagsutgivet), 2005

This paper presents results from a study of future bioenergy use in Europe, within the specific context of an enlarged EU, including CO2 caps and biofuel for transport policies. The analysis is made using a cost-minimization country-level energy and transport system model. The main issue addressed concerns the opportunities for bioenergy production and trade within Europe. In the presence of ambitious climate policies and assuming inter-European biomass trade only, the use of bioenergy in EU 15, in particular biofuels for transport, stimulates biomass production in CEEC. However, the domestic biomass use in CEEC is the major driver behind increased biomass production for energy in CEEC. The capacity in EU15 ports seems sufficient to accommodate a substantial biomass import flow from CEEC. However, the capacity of CEEC ports may constrain the future biomass export from CEEC to EU15. A closer examination of the logistic capacity by ship and other transport modes is required before any firm conclusion regarding the prospects for large scale bioenergy trade flows from CEEC to EU15 can be made.