Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2021

Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society’s mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO2 and non-CO2 effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation’s climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.

Författare

V. Grewe

TU Delft

ECATS International Association

Deutsches Zentrums für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)

Arvind Gangoli Rao

TU Delft

ECATS International Association

Tomas Grönstedt

Chalmers, Mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Strömningslära

ECATS International Association

Carlos Xisto

Chalmers, Mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Strömningslära

ECATS International Association

Florian Linke

Deutsches Zentrums für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)

ECATS International Association

Joris Melkert

ECATS International Association

TU Delft

Jan Middel

Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre (NLR)

ECATS International Association

Barbara Ohlenforst

Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre (NLR)

ECATS International Association

Simon Blakey

ECATS International Association

University of Birmingham

University of Sheffield

Simon Christie

Manchester Metropolitan University

ECATS International Association

Sigrun Matthes

Deutsches Zentrums für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)

ECATS International Association

Katrin Dahlmann

Deutsches Zentrums für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)

ECATS International Association

Nature Communications

2041-1723 (ISSN) 20411723 (eISSN)

Vol. 12 1 3841

Ämneskategorier

Tvärvetenskapliga studier

Energisystem

Klimatforskning

DOI

10.1038/s41467-021-24091-y

PubMed

34158484

Relaterade dataset

Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris Agreement including COVID-19 effects [dataset]

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4627859

Mer information

Senast uppdaterat

2023-09-22