Black swans swimming in product streams: method for including unplanned events in life cycle assessment
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2024
Method: A theoretical background to the concepts of black swans, accidents, and unplanned events is first provided. We then propose a method for how unplanned events can be included in LCA practice, illustrated through three cases: (i) a sabotage in the energy system, (ii) an accident in the use phase, and (iii) a sudden policy change.
Results: The results show that unplanned events can be included and may significantly affect LCA results, sometimes even fulfilling criteria for black-swan events.
Conclusions: We suggest that unplanned events should be included in LCA when relevant, e.g. as one scenario in LCAs of product systems sensitive to accidents. We also suggest that changes in flows due to unplanned events should be considered in unit processes, so that their impacts become distributed across downstream product systems depending on demand for the unit-process output.
Unit process
Risk assessment
Life cycle assessment
Black swan
Accident
Författare
Frida Hermansson
Chalmers, Teknikens ekonomi och organisation, Environmental Systems Analysis
IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet
Rickard Arvidsson
Chalmers, Teknikens ekonomi och organisation, Environmental Systems Analysis
Magdalena Svanström
Chalmers, Teknikens ekonomi och organisation, Environmental Systems Analysis
International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
0948-3349 (ISSN) 1614-7502 (eISSN)
Vol. In PressMiljöeffekter av återvinning och olyckor i kolfiberkompositers livscykler
ÅForsk (23-491), 2023-09-01 -- 2026-06-30.
Ämneskategorier
Produktionsteknik, arbetsvetenskap och ergonomi
Miljöledning
Företagsekonomi
Drivkrafter
Hållbar utveckling
Styrkeområden
Produktion
DOI
10.1007/s11367-024-02344-4