Drivers for rapid climate change in the Arctic - the role of warm and moist air intrusions and clouds

Research Project, 2024 – 2027

This project aims to investigate the influence of warm and moist air intrusions on Arctic clouds and thus Arctic climate. Arctic clouds are one key element of the feedback processes that result in Arctic amplification, an enhanced warming response of the Arctic to climate change, which can have a significant influence on the whole Earth system. Since clouds are poorly constrained in climate models, there is a need to gain more understanding of processes influencing clouds, the underlying physics, and their representation in climate models to improve climate projections. We will quantify under which conditions warm air intrusions change the cloud cover and thus change the Arctic energy balance, and lead to a melting of sea ice. We will assess which related processes need to be represented in climate models, and which parameterizations and model resolution are needed to correctly represent Arctic clouds during warm and moist air intrusion events. This study will provide a new theoretical understanding and potential guidelines and development for climate and weather models.The project is structured in three parts over four years using different tools to answer the specific research questions. The main tool is a sophisticated small-scale large eddy simulation (LES) model that will be used in conjunction with field observations done in previous and one upcoming research expedition in the Arctic (ARTofMELT 2023).