Initial risk estimations in railway mechanics

Research Project, 2027

In transportation there is often a need to make risk assessments. In most cases, this need occurs when input data are scarce and uncertain. There is then a need for a first overview assessment to support initial decisions. Such initial risk estimations are often very difficult since many parameters are uncertain or unknown. In railway operations, risk assessments often relate to mechanical phenomena. The "risks" can be directly safety related and/or relate to risks of increased traffic disruptions, costs or environmental impact.

Improved abilities to carry out initial risk assessments will benefit the entire transport sector. The project will research risk estimations related to three phenomena that cover different risk aspects:

Track buckling is a directly safety related phenomenon that causes both traffic disruptions and derailments each summer. The risk of track buckling relates to many parameters which are inherently difficult to quantify. The project will evaluate which of these parameters need to be considered, and for these how reasonable estimations can be made. The intended outcome is a manageable approach to prioritizing track sections for further investigations and proactive maintenance.

Vehicle and track damage can come in different forms occurring in combination or isolated. Often there are established procedures to handle repair, inspections and approvals for resumed traffic. However, in some cases these are too time consuming (e.g., in an armed conflict), or not possible to follow (e.g., due to weather conditions). The project will investigate means to carry out initial risk assessments in such cases.

Curve squeal is extremely annoying and may require very expensive mitigation actions to adhere to legal restrictions. A full assessment of the risk of squeal occurrence requires detailed models of vehicles and tracks that are commonly not available. This severely restricts the ability for proactive actions. The project aims to research the potential for employing "bad case" scenarios to allow a mapping of situations where squeal may occur. These can then be subjected to detailed investigations of risks and effectiveness of mitigating actions.