Environmental Risk Assessment of Shipwrecks: a fault-tree model to assess probability of contaminant release

Conference poster, 2012

RP247 Environmental risk assessment for shipwrecks: a fault-tree model to assess probability of contaminant release H. Landquist, I. Hassellov, Chalmers University of Technology / Shipping and Marine Technology; L. Rosen, Chalmers University of Technology / Civil and Environmental Engineering; F. Lindgren, Chalmers University of Technology / Shipping and Marine Technology; I. Dahllof, The University of Gothenburg; T. Norberg, Chalmers University of Technology / Mathematical Sciences; A. Lindhe, Chalmers University of Technology / Civil and Environmental Engineering. Shipwrecks lying on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances which can cause harm to the maritime environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritisation of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study has been to develop a framework for risk assessment of potentially polluting shipwrecks, focusing on a detailed probabilistic assessment of the release of hazardous substances. The framework is based on international standards for risk management and the assessment of the probability for release was done using fault-tree analysis. This approach enables a structure assessment and provides an excellent possibility of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The fault tree model was tested by groups of experts in the field of maritime administration, maritime archaeology and in other areas to validate the method. The developed framework facilitates risk assessment of potentially polluting shipwrecks and can support risk management as well as provide well founded input for decision-making. In particular the fault-tree analysis provides a quantitative method for assessing the probability of leakage and can facilitate uncertainty and sensitivity analyses.