Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production
Journal article, 2018
Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010–2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.
Author
Gina Mills
University of Gothenburg
UK Centre For Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH)
Katrina Sharps
UK Centre For Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH)
David Simpson
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Microwave and Optical Remote Sensing
Håkan Pleijel
University of Gothenburg
Malin Broberg
University of Gothenburg
Johan Uddling
University of Gothenburg
Fernando Jaramillo
Stockholm University
William J. Davies
Lancaster University
F. Dentener
Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission
Maurits Van den Berg
Lancaster University
Madhoolika Agrawal
Banaras Hindu University
Shahibhushan B Agrawal
Banaras Hindu University
Elizabeth A. Ainsworth
University of Illinois
P. Buker
University of York
L. Emberson
University of York
Zhaozhong Feng
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Harry Harmens
UK Centre For Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH)
Felicity Hayes
UK Centre For Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH)
Kazuhiko Kobayashi
University of Tokyo
Elena Paoletti
Consiglo Nazionale Delle Richerche
Rita Van Dingenen
Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission
Global Change Biology
1354-1013 (ISSN) 1365-2486 (eISSN)
Vol. 24 8 3560-3574ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system (MERGE)
Lund University (9945095), 2010-01-01 -- .
Subject Categories
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Environmental Sciences
Climate Research
DOI
10.1111/gcb.14157