Climate Change: Models, Metrics and Meaning Making
Doctoral thesis, 2018
This thesis, combining research in climate science and educational science, investigates different aspects of climate knowledge. It consists of five papers and covers three major topics: emission metrics, public understanding of atmospheric CO2 accumulation, and spatial modelling of natural resource use.
In Paper I-II, we study emission metrics that compare the climate impact of different climate forcers in two different ways. For Paper I, we use Sea Level Rise (SLR) as the basis for comparison, proposing two novel emission metrics. We find that all examined climate forcers – even short-lived – have considerable influence on SLR on at least a century time scale. Paper II focuses on how the Climate-Carbon cycle Feedback (CCF) affects emission metric values, in relation to how the CCF caused by non-CO2 forcers is modeled. For emission pulses, we show that with an approach previously used to calculate climate metrics using linear feedback analysis for the CCF, the effect of it will persist basically forever, while with an approach based on an explicit carbon cycle model, the CCF effect by non-CO2 forcers eventually vanishes, leading to lower metric values for longer time-horizons.
Paper III-IV, related to climate science literacy, focus on public understanding of atmospheric CO2 accumulation and its potential link to climate policy support. In Paper III, we identified five qualitatively different ways of reasoning about CO2 accumulation; only one of these is consistent with mass balance principles. We also found that task formulation has a strong bearing on the assessment of understanding, but that strong
climate policy support does not require that people can solve typical CO2 tasks. In Paper IV, we draw attention to a range of challenges that university students experience when reasoning about CO2 accumulation, ranging from cognitive to metacognitive and affective challenges. Most notable for the cognitive domain was the failure to understand how uptake of CO2 depends on emission pathways.
In Paper V, we model low-income villagers’ spatial natural resource use while removing constraining assumptions on villagers’ behaviour. We find that removing commonly used constraints lead to higher degrees of heterogeneity among villagers’ spatial behaviour, especially for intermediate distance cases.
In Paper I-II, we study emission metrics that compare the climate impact of different climate forcers in two different ways. For Paper I, we use Sea Level Rise (SLR) as the basis for comparison, proposing two novel emission metrics. We find that all examined climate forcers – even short-lived – have considerable influence on SLR on at least a century time scale. Paper II focuses on how the Climate-Carbon cycle Feedback (CCF) affects emission metric values, in relation to how the CCF caused by non-CO2 forcers is modeled. For emission pulses, we show that with an approach previously used to calculate climate metrics using linear feedback analysis for the CCF, the effect of it will persist basically forever, while with an approach based on an explicit carbon cycle model, the CCF effect by non-CO2 forcers eventually vanishes, leading to lower metric values for longer time-horizons.
Paper III-IV, related to climate science literacy, focus on public understanding of atmospheric CO2 accumulation and its potential link to climate policy support. In Paper III, we identified five qualitatively different ways of reasoning about CO2 accumulation; only one of these is consistent with mass balance principles. We also found that task formulation has a strong bearing on the assessment of understanding, but that strong
climate policy support does not require that people can solve typical CO2 tasks. In Paper IV, we draw attention to a range of challenges that university students experience when reasoning about CO2 accumulation, ranging from cognitive to metacognitive and affective challenges. Most notable for the cognitive domain was the failure to understand how uptake of CO2 depends on emission pathways.
In Paper V, we model low-income villagers’ spatial natural resource use while removing constraining assumptions on villagers’ behaviour. We find that removing commonly used constraints lead to higher degrees of heterogeneity among villagers’ spatial behaviour, especially for intermediate distance cases.
Climate Science Literacy
Emission Metrics
Knowledge-Behavior Gap
Short-lived Climate Forcers
SF Failure
Integral Theory
Carbon Cycle
Sea Level Rise
Common Pool Resources
Resource Extraction
HA3, Hörsalsvägen 4
Opponent: Dr. Glen Peters, CICERO, Norway
Author
Erik Sterner
Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Physical Resource Theory
The effect of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks on emission metrics
Environmental Research Letters,;Vol. 12(2017)p. 034019-
Journal article
Sterner, E. O., Adawi, T., Persson, U. M., Lundqvist, U. All tasks are not created equal: Investigating understanding of atmospheric CO2 accumulation
Sterner, E. O., Adawi, T., Lundqvist, U., Persson, U. M. Challenges experienced by engineering students when dealing with tasks related to atmospheric CO2 accumulation
Location choice for renewable resource extraction with multiple non-cooperative extractors: a spatial Nash equilibrium model and numerical implementation
Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences,;Vol. 11(2018)p. 315-331
Journal article
How much worse for climate is the emission of a kilo of methane compared to a kilo of carbon dioxide?
Will it suffice to stabilize CO2 emissions to stop global warming?
This thesis explores (1) aspects of how we can compare the climate impacts of different greenhouse gases and (2) how people reason about how atmospheric CO2 accumulation works and the challenges they face in doing so.
A key result for (1) is that all substances that contribute to global warming—even soot, that is gone from the atmosphere a few weeks after it was emitted—affect sea level rise for a long time (100 years+). The main findings for (2) is that many aspects of thinking and feeling enter our mind as we reason about questions related to CO2 accumulation. These have to do not only with our understanding of the physics at work but also with our attitudes, our identity and aspects of what we believe about the climate of tomorrow.
Will it suffice to stabilize CO2 emissions to stop global warming?
This thesis explores (1) aspects of how we can compare the climate impacts of different greenhouse gases and (2) how people reason about how atmospheric CO2 accumulation works and the challenges they face in doing so.
A key result for (1) is that all substances that contribute to global warming—even soot, that is gone from the atmosphere a few weeks after it was emitted—affect sea level rise for a long time (100 years+). The main findings for (2) is that many aspects of thinking and feeling enter our mind as we reason about questions related to CO2 accumulation. These have to do not only with our understanding of the physics at work but also with our attitudes, our identity and aspects of what we believe about the climate of tomorrow.
Climate change - land use and aviation
Carl Bennet AB, 2010-03-27 -- 2018-12-31.
International climate policy after Paris: Emissions targets for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases
Swedish Energy Agency (35443-3), 2015-11-01 -- 2017-10-31.
Targets and policy instruments for CO2 and shortlived climate pollutants
Swedish Energy Agency (P35443-2), 2013-11-01 -- 2015-10-30.
Subject Categories
Didactics
Economics
Environmental Sciences
Climate Research
Driving Forces
Sustainable development
Areas of Advance
Energy
Learning and teaching
Pedagogical work
ISBN
978-91-7597-811-6
Doktorsavhandlingar vid Chalmers tekniska högskola. Ny serie: 4492
Publisher
Chalmers
HA3, Hörsalsvägen 4
Opponent: Dr. Glen Peters, CICERO, Norway