Predicting battery aging trajectory via a migrated aging model and Bayesian Monte Carlo method

Paper in proceeding, 2019

Thanks to the fast development in battery technologies, the lifespan of the lithium-ion batteries increases to more than 3000 cycles. This brings new challenges to reliability related researches because the experimental time becomes overly long. In response, a migrated battery aging model is proposed to predict the battery aging trajectory. The normal-speed aging model is established based on the accelerate aging model through a migration process, whose migration factors are determined through the Bayesian Monte Carlo method and the stratified resampling technique. Experimental results show that the root-mean-square-error of the predicted aging trajectory is limited within 1% when using only 25% of the cyclic aging data for training. The proposed method is suitable for both offline prediction of battery lifespan and online prediction of the remaining useful life.