Are We There Yet? Combining qualitative and quantitative methods to study the introduction of CAVs in Sweden, and potential travel demand effects.

Licentiate thesis, 2021

By law, Sweden must reach net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2045. Domestic transportation is one sector in which GHG emissions can be reduced substantially. Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) could potentially help with this and with the transition to a more efficient transportation system, but they could also instead make meeting the target harder. The issues of how CAV technology will be introduced to the general public and what the effects will be are fraught with uncertainty.

Thus far, much policy research has been informed by technical, quantitative studies, such as the one in Paper 1 of this licentiate thesis. The study analyses the impact CAVs may have on travel demand. The methodology is based on an induced travel demand model that simulates the effects on Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) related to changes in Value of Travel Time (VoTT) and the cost of CAV technology. In our most conservative scenario—with the smallest change in VoTT and highest CAV cost—we estimate an average increase in travel distance by car of 5% once CAVs are a mature technology on the market, while this increase reaches 61% in the least conservative scenario. Our results also show that income matters: Under certain conditions, those who are able to work remotely and have a relatively high income have a greater economic incentive to purchase a CAV and extend their travel distance.

In Paper 2, we identify and map the broader societal drivers and pressures for the introduction of CAVs in cities. The approach taken in the paper has a theoretical basis in transition management and stakeholder theories and uses a combination of the Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) framework and force field analysis to analyse interview transcripts. Survey data complement this analysis. The results provide in- depth knowledge about how actors in different parts of society perceive the introduction of CAVs and the mechanisms behind the expansion of these vehicles. It is clear from the interviews and survey that CAVs are not seen as unconditionally positive; instead, many stakeholders believe CAVs need to be connected to mobility planning and public transport strategies.