Improved Peak Load Estimation from Single and Multiple Consumer Categories
Paper in proceeding, 2020

Velander’s formula and coincidence factors have traditionally been used to estimate peak load for new connections in the distribution grid. By re-evaluating their underlying assumptions, this paper proposes two improved models for aggregated peak load estimation (PLE). For single-category load aggregation, the proposed coincidence factor model, by incorporating an average correlation coefficient, improves the model fitting by 76%–96% as compared to the standard Rusck model. For multiple-category load aggregation, the proposed joint Gaussian regression model reduces the PLE bias from 3%–34% to 0.2%–3% compared to the traditional approach.
(see the full paper in 4 pages)

load aggregation

modified Velander fomula

peak load estimation


Kristoffer Fürst

Chalmers, Electrical Engineering, Electric Power Engineering

Peiyuan Chen

Chalmers, Electrical Engineering, Electric Power Engineering

Irene Yu-Hua Gu

Chalmers, Electrical Engineering

Lang Tong

Cornell University

IET Conference Publications

25150855 (eISSN)

Vol. 2020 CP767 178-181

CIRED 2020 Berlin Workshop, CIRED 2020
Virtual; online, ,

Areas of Advance


Subject Categories

Energy Systems

Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering



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