Improved Peak Load Estimation from Single and Multiple Consumer Categories
Paper i proceeding, 2020

Velander’s formula and coincidence factors have traditionally been used to estimate peak load for new connections in the distribution grid. By re-evaluating their underlying assumptions, this paper proposes two improved models for aggregated peak load estimation (PLE). For single-category load aggregation, the proposed coincidence factor model, by incorporating an average correlation coefficient, improves the model fitting by 76%–96% as compared to the standard Rusck model. For multiple-category load aggregation, the proposed joint Gaussian regression model reduces the PLE bias from 3%–34% to 0.2%–3% compared to the traditional approach.
(see the full paper in 4 pages)

load aggregation

modified Velander fomula

peak load estimation


Kristoffer Fürst

Chalmers, Elektroteknik, Elkraftteknik

Peiyuan Chen

Chalmers, Elektroteknik, Elkraftteknik

Irene Yu-Hua Gu

Chalmers, Elektroteknik

Lang Tong

Cornell University

IET Conference Publications

25150855 (eISSN)

Vol. 2020 CP767 178-181

CIRED 2020 Berlin Workshop, CIRED 2020
Virtual; online, ,





Annan elektroteknik och elektronik



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