Comparison Of Electricity Load Estimation Methods In Rural Mini-Grids: Case Study In Ethiopia

Paper in proceeding, 2023

To provide electricity to unelectrified sub-Saharan Africa rural areas, mini-grids could play a key role. Mini-grid components size and investment cost, which is high for rural customers, need load profile knowledge for the design of a cost-efficient system. However, load profiles may vary based on the estimation method used, which leads to different mini-grid sizes and costs. This study compares interview and measurement load profile estimation methods in the case of Ethiopia. The impact of hourly electric load estimation on mini-grid sizing and cost is also determined. The result indicates that the interview method shows significant underestimation in peak load, energy per day and cost. The peak load and energy per day are underestimated by 70% and 21 %, while load factor is overestimated by 162% in interviews. This leads to a 52 % cost underestimation. In addition, hourly load estimation is prone to error that leads to a 9% cost underestimation.