Evaluation and communication of pandemic scenarios
Other text in scientific journal, 2024
In recent years, publications in The Lancet Digital Health have presented research involving pandemic scenarios. However, during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the terms prediction, scenario, and forecast were often used interchangeably as discussed by Kristen Nixon and colleagues, leading to confusion. Although distinctions between these concepts have been refined during the pandemic, we find that clarification is needed for the use of scenario projections as narrative devices. We also encourage more discussion regarding the terminology used to describe scenarios and how they are evaluated.
Pandemic
Prediction
Forecast
Mathematical Models
Scenarios
Science Communication
Author
Philip Gerlee
Chalmers, Mathematical Sciences, Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Henrik Thorén
Lund University
Anna Saxne Jöud
Lund University
Torbjörn Lundh
Chalmers, Mathematical Sciences, Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Armin Spreco
Linköping University Hospital
Region Östergötland
Anders Nordlund
National Board of Health and Welfare
Thomas Brezicka
Sahlgrenska University Hospital
Public Health Agency of Sweden
Tom Britton
Public Health Agency of Sweden
Stockholm University
Magnus Kjellberg
AI Competence for Sweden
Henrik Källberg
Public Health Agency of Sweden
Anders Tegnell
Public Health Agency of Sweden
Lisa Brouwers
Public Health Agency of Sweden
Toomas Timpka
Linköping University Hospital
The Lancet Digital Health
25897500 (eISSN)
Vol. 6 8 E543-E544Predicting an uncertain future: improving the utility of computational models during a pandemic
Swedish Research Council (VR) (2022-06368), 2023-01-01 -- 2025-12-31.
Areas of Advance
Health Engineering
Subject Categories (SSIF 2011)
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
DOI
10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00144-4
PubMed
39059885