Evaluation and communication of pandemic scenarios
Övrig text i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2024
In recent years, publications in The Lancet Digital Health have presented research involving pandemic scenarios. However, during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the terms prediction, scenario, and forecast were often used interchangeably as discussed by Kristen Nixon and colleagues, leading to confusion. Although distinctions between these concepts have been refined during the pandemic, we find that clarification is needed for the use of scenario projections as narrative devices. We also encourage more discussion regarding the terminology used to describe scenarios and how they are evaluated.
Pandemic
Prediction
Forecast
Mathematical Models
Scenarios
Science Communication
Författare
Philip Gerlee
Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, Tillämpad matematik och statistik
Henrik Thorén
Lund University
Anna Saxne Jöud
Lunds universitet
Torbjörn Lundh
Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, Tillämpad matematik och statistik
Armin Spreco
Universitetssjukhuset i Linköping
Region Östergötland
Anders Nordlund
Socialstyrelsen
Thomas Brezicka
Sahlgrenska universitetssjukhuset
Folkhälsomyndigheten
Tom Britton
Folkhälsomyndigheten
Stockholms universitet
Magnus Kjellberg
AI Competence for Sweden
Henrik Källberg
Folkhälsomyndigheten
Anders Tegnell
Folkhälsomyndigheten
Lisa Brouwers
Folkhälsomyndigheten
Toomas Timpka
Universitetssjukhuset i Linköping
The Lancet Digital Health
25897500 (eISSN)
Vol. 6 8 E543-E544Att förutsäga en osäker framtid: förbättring av beräkningsmodeller som beslutsstöd under en pandemi
Vetenskapsrådet (VR) (2022-06368), 2023-01-01 -- 2025-12-31.
Styrkeområden
Hälsa och teknik
Ämneskategorier (SSIF 2011)
Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
DOI
10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00144-4
PubMed
39059885