Consequences of large-scale hydrogen use in the European transportation sector – geospatial modeling of infrastructure, electricity costs, water risk, and land use

Licentiate thesis, 2025

To decrease the greenhouse gas emissions from transportation and industry, the use of electrolytic hydrogen produced from renewable electricity and water has been suggested, to substitute fossil energy and feedstock. But electrolytic hydrogen hasn’t been used directly in these sectors on a large scale before, and it hasn’t been produced in large quantities in Europe either.

This thesis analyses potential consequences of future hydrogen use and production across Europe, in transportation including trucks, shipping, aviation, and industries including steel, ammonia, high value chemicals, and fuel production. Assessments are based on a geospatially specific model, SVENG (Simulating Vehicle Energy Needs Geospatially), built for this thesis. This model simulates specific geographical locations of hydrogen demand for transportation and industry, over a full year, which allows for modeling impacts with more consideration to local context. For transportation, the demand is modeled using detailed logistics data, which allows allocating demand with consideration to transportation flows. For trucks, demand is allocated along logistics route considering power demand due to differentiated influence from road speed and topography, which is shown to significantly impact the simulated location of hydrogen refueling stations.

The geospatial hydrogen demand data is used for four assessments: 1) evaluating implications of the EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), and analyzing effects of different fuel mix scenarios on 2) electricity cost, 3) water risk, and 4) land use.

The hydrogen refueling stations required by AFIR are expected to provide more capacity than needed in some countries, which might result in excessive costs for unused infrastructure if hydrogen truck diffusion rates remain low. Electricity costs, in some regions, are heavily influenced by the energy transition pathway in transportation. Electrolytic hydrogen production may contribute to overextraction of water in some locations, even if the locations are not otherwise projected to have high water risk. Land use intensity of renewable electricity for producing hydrogen is low compared to biofuel production, but renewable electricity generation like solar and wind power faces other challenges like acceptance issues. Combining different fuels in the mix might offer an opportunity to manage land use issues.

Modeling results presented in this thesis have pointed towards different potential problems and benefits with some technical pathways, utilizing data and methods building on higher geospatial resolution than many previous studies, but still analyzing options from a continental perspective. The publication of new, geospatially detailed datasets will hopefully open new possibilities for further modeling of additional aspects.