Handbook of mathematical modelling of infectious diseases for decision-making

Report, 2025

This handbook offers a clear and practical guide to how models can support public-health decision-making before, during, and after an epidemic.
Developed through a national collaboration between the Public Health Agency of Sweden, Chalmers University of Technology, the Swedish Defence
Research Agency, and the Swedish Armed Forces, the handbook distils lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and highlights the importance of transparent, well-communicated modelling.

The book provides a structured walk-through of the full modelling process: from defining the purpose of a model and choosing data and model types, to implementation, calibration, validation, communication, and long-term model management. It emphasises the interplay between modellers and
decision-makers, showing how clear objectives, realistic assumptions, and awareness of uncertainty are essential for models to be useful in real-world settings.

Rather than prescribing a single modelling approach, the handbook illuminates the choices, trade-offs, and practical considerations that shape every modelling project. It is intended for early-career modellers, academics entering applied infectious-disease modelling, and practitioners in public health who rely on model-based evidence. Senior modellers will also find it a valuable foundation for harmonising both practices and nomenclature, and strengthening collaboration across institutions.