Timely delivery of electricity for industrial hydrogen demands: path dependencies in the transition of urban energy systems

Journal article, 2026

This study investigates how an increased demand of electricity to produce hydrogen through electrolysis affects three urban energy systems with hydrogen-based industries over a period of 50 years using an energy system optimisation model. Four scenarios are formulated based on access to electricity import capacity reinforcements and off-shore wind power in relation to increased industrial demands of hydrogen from electrolysis. Results show that electricity imports, off-shore wind power and solar PV parks are the main contributors of electricity in the studied urban energy systems in all the scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, investments are made in hydrogen pipelines that will connect the three urban energy systems investigated. The scenario with an increase in industrial load before access to electricity import capacity reinforcements and off-shore wind power, gives substantially more investments in combined cycle gas turbines fuelled by biogas to meet the demand, as compared to the other scenarios. Additionally, in that same scenario, the total system cost is 18% higher compared to the scenario when the grid is reinforced and off-shore wind power investments available already from Year 2030, before an increase in industrial loads. This can be compared to an increase in total system cost of 4% with access to either grid reinforcements or off-shore wind power respectively from Year 2030, suggesting that access to offshore wind power and/or electricity import capacity reinforcements are important for a large-scale industry electrification in the studied system. Towards 2080, all scenarios show similar results with regards to electricity and hydrogen supply, which suggests that the pathway between Years 2030 to 2040 will not affect the long-term, most-cost-effective solution.