A state-of-the-art model for spatial and stochastic oil spill risk assessment: A case study of oil spill from a shipwreck
Journal article, 2019

Oil spills are serious environmental issues that potentially can cause adverse effects on marine ecosystems. In some marine areas, like the Baltic Sea, there is a large number of wrecks from the first half of the 20th century, and recent monitoring and field work have revealed release of oil from some of these wrecks. The risk posed by a wreck is governed by its condition, hazardous substances contained in the wreck and the state of the surrounding environment. Therefore, there is a need for a common standard method for estimating the risks associated with different wrecks. In this work a state-of-the-art model is presented for spatial and stochastic risk assessment of oil spills from wrecks, enabling a structured approach to include the complex factors affecting the risk values. A unique feature of this model is its specific focus on uncertainty, facilitating probabilistic calculation of the total risk as the integral expected sum of many possible consequences. A case study is performed in Kattegat at the entrance region to the Baltic Sea to map the risk from a wreck near Sweden. The developed model can be used for oil spill risk assessment in the marine environment all over the world.

Probabilistic approach

Oil spill


Risk assessment



Payam Amir Heidari

Sharif University of Technology

Lars Arneborg


Fredrik Lindgren

Chalmers, Mechanics and Maritime Sciences (M2), Maritime Studies

Andreas Lindhe

Chalmers, Architecture and Civil Engineering, GeoEngineering

Lars Rosen

Chalmers, Architecture and Civil Engineering, GeoEngineering

Mohammad Raie

Sharif University of Technology

Lars Axell


Ida-Maja Hassellöv

Chalmers, Mechanics and Maritime Sciences (M2), Maritime Studies

Environment International

0160-4120 (ISSN)

Vol. 126 309-320

Driving Forces

Sustainable development

Areas of Advance


Subject Categories

Environmental Engineering

Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Environmental Sciences





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4/5/2022 6