A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks
Journal article, 2014
Shipwrecks on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances that can cause harm to the marine environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks, and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritization of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for quantitative risk estimation of potentially polluting shipwrecks, and in particular an estimation of the annual probability of hazardous substance discharge. The assessment of the probability of discharge is performed using fault tree analysis, facilitating quantification of the probability with respect to a set of identified hazardous events. This approach enables a structured assessment providing transparent uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The model facilitates quantification of risk, quantification of the uncertainties in the risk calculation and identification of parameters to be investigated further in order to obtain a more reliable risk calculation.
Fault tree analysis
Risk assessment
Shipwreck
Oil
Author
Hanna Landquist
Chalmers, Shipping and Marine Technology, Division of Maritime Operations
Chalmers, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Geology and Geotechnics
Lars Rosen
Chalmers, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Geology and Geotechnics
Andreas Lindhe
Chalmers, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Geology and Geotechnics
Tommy Norberg
Chalmers, Mathematical Sciences, Mathematical Statistics
University of Gothenburg
Ida-Maja Hassellöv
Chalmers, Shipping and Marine Technology, Division of Maritime Operations
Fredrik Lindgren
Chalmers, Shipping and Marine Technology, Division of Maritime Operations
Ingela Dahllöf
University of Gothenburg
Marine Pollution Bulletin
0025-326X (ISSN) 1879-3363 (eISSN)
Vol. 88 1-2 239-248Subject Categories
Environmental Sciences
DOI
10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.08.037