Modeling Large Scale Effects of Electrification of Powertrains in Road-based Freight

Forskningsprojekt, 2027 – 2028

 The pace of the transition to a fossil-free transport sector will depend on many factors, such as the vehicle and infrastructure design, how it influences the haulage companies' economy, and how the haulage company is affected by policies and legislation. Understanding and quantifying these connections and interactions will help policymakers and vehicle manufacturers make well-informed decisions toward a fossil-free transport system. This project will take a vehicle focused approach to the study of electrification of the transport system. The aim is to develop mathematically sound tools capable of connecting vehicle characteristics to a national CO2 emission impact and to quantify these using statistical relations.

The project will utilize and extend previous results to use statistical modeling and optimal control to describe the transport missions and their conditions connected to road transport needs. This approach enables balanced model fidelity, by capturing variations statistically, resulting in manageable complexity. Haulage companies will be assumed to be rational actors governed by policies and legislations, the total cost of ownership, and the vehicles used in the best possible manner. The actual use of vehicles and consequently the CO2 emissions will therefore be formulated as optimization problems. The provided method will be a robust tool for transportation service providers to identify parts of their services that benefit from 100% electrification of the services with increased profitability and reduced CO2, by using vehicle combinations with multiple electrified axles and electrified trailers.