Energy security policies in EU-25 - the expected cost of oil supply disruptions
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2010

A framework for analyzing the impact on the expected cost of oil disruption by energy policies in EU-25 is developed. The framework takes into account how energy policies affect the oil market, the expected oil price increase, and the disruption costs. OPEC’s strategic behaviour is modelled as a dominant firm, and the model includes price interdependence between different energy commodities to better estimate the cost of an oil disruption. It is found that substituting pellets for oil in households and using imported sugar cane ethanol are cost-efficient policies if greenhouse gas benefits are included. Domestically produced wheat ethanol is not found to be cost-efficient even if both the expected cost of oil disruption and greenhouse gas benefits are included, the same also holds for hybrid vehicles. The gross expected economic gain of the policies is found to be between 9 and 22 €/bbl oil replaced.

climate policy

oil disruption

Energy security

Författare

Fredrik Hedenus

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Fysisk resursteori

Christian Azar

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Fysisk resursteori

Daniel Johansson

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Fysisk resursteori

Energy Policy

0301-4215 (ISSN)

Vol. 38 1241-1250

Ämneskategorier

Annan naturresursteknik

DOI

10.1016/j.enpol.2009.01.030