Coalescent approximation for structured populations in a stationary random environment
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2010

We establish convergence to the Kingman coalescent for the genealogy of a geographically - or otherwise - structured version of the Wright-Fisher population model with fast migration. The new feature is that migration probabilities may change in a random fashion. This brings a novel formula for the coalescent effective population size (EPS). We call it a quenched EPS to emphasize the key feature of our model - random environment. The quenched EPS is compared with an annealed (mean-field) EPS which describes the case of constant migration probabilities obtained by averaging the random migration probabilities over possible environments.

Kingman's coalescent


Mohle's lemma

Quenched effective population size

Structured Wright-Fisher model



strong-migration limit

Stationary random



Serik Sagitov

Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik

Göteborgs universitet

Peter Jagers

Göteborgs universitet

Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik

V.A. Vatutin

Steklov Mathematical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences

Theoretical Population Biology

0040-5809 (ISSN) 1096-0325 (eISSN)

Vol. 78 192-199


Sannolikhetsteori och statistik