Evaluating EML Modeling Tools for Insurance Purposes: A Case Study
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2010

As with any situation that involves economical risk refineries may share their risk with insurers. The decision process generally includes modelling to determine to which extent the process area can be damaged. On the extreme end of modelling the so-called Estimated Maximum Loss (EML) scenarios are found. These scenarios predict the maximum loss a particular installation can sustain. Unfortunately no standard model for this exists. Thus the insurers reach different results due to applying different models and different assumptions. Therefore, a study has been conducted on a case in a Swedish refinery where several scenarios previously had been modelled by two different insurance brokers using two different softwares, ExTool and SLAM. This study reviews the concept of EML and analyses the used models to see which parameters are most uncertain. Also a third model, EFFECTS, was employed in an attempt to reach a conclusion with higher reliability.

Process safety

Rifinery insurance

Estimated maximum loss

Risk with insurance


Mikael Gustavsson

Chalmers, Produkt- och produktionsutveckling, Produktionssystem

Mohammad Shahriari

Chalmers, Produkt- och produktionsutveckling, Produktionssystem

Mats Lindgren

Chalmers University of Technology

International Journal of Chemical Engineering

1687-806X (ISSN) 1687-8078 (eISSN)

Vol. 2010 104370


Produktionsteknik, arbetsvetenskap och ergonomi



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