Prospects for domestic biofuels for transport in Sweden 2030 based on current production and future plans
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2015

Currently, Sweden has the largest share of renewable fuels for transport in the EU. The ambition of the Swedish Government for 2030 is for a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels. This paper assesses the potential future contribution of domestically produced biofuels for transport in Sweden to 2030, based on a mapping of the prospects from the actual and potential Swedish biofuel producers. There are plans for cellulose-based ethanol, methanol, DME, methane, and the biodiesel option HVO. Continued domestic production of biofuels at current levels, and the realization of all the ongoing mapped plans for additional biofuels production, results in a potential domestic biofuels production of 18 TWhfuel in 2023. When assuming a continued expansion of biofuels production capacity, the potential domestic biofuels production reaches about 26 TWh(fuel) in 2030. If the realization of the mapped biofuels plans is delayed by 5 years and the pace of continued implementation of additional biofuel capacity is also reduced, the potential domestic biofuels production is reduced to about 8 TWh(fuel) and 20 TWh(fuel) biofuels in 2020 and 2030, respectively. These two scenarios correspond to a share of biofuels of the total future energy demand for road transport in Sweden at about 10-30% in 2020 and 26-79% in 2030, depending on which official energy demand scenario is used. The actual contribution of biofuels for road transport will depend on, e.g., policies, the global development for fossil fuels and biofuels, the competition for biomass and biofuels, and future energy demand in the road transport sector.

Sweden

scenarios

biofuel production

Författare

Maria Grahn

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Fysisk resursteori

Julia Hansson

IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet AB

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment

2041-8396 (ISSN) 2041-840X (eISSN)

Vol. 4 3 290-306

Drivkrafter

Hållbar utveckling

Styrkeområden

Transport

Energi

Ämneskategorier

Bioenergi

Energisystem

Miljöbioteknik

DOI

10.1002/wene.138

Mer information

Senast uppdaterat

2018-03-07