Valuation of Index-Linked Cash Flows in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2015

In this paper, we study the valuation of stochastic cash flows that exhibit dependence on interest rates. We focus on insurance liability cash flows linked to an index, such as a consumer price index or wage index, where changes in the index value can be partially understood in terms of changes in the term structure of interest rates. Insurance liability cash flows that are not explicitly linked to an index may still be valued in our framework by interpreting index returns as so-called claims inflation, i.e., an increase in claims cost per sold insurance contract. We focus primarily on the case when a deep and liquid market for index-linked contracts is absent or when the market price data are unreliable. Firstly, we present an approach for assigning a monetary value to a stochastic cash flow that does not require full knowledge of the joint dynamics of the cash flow and the term structure of interest rates. Secondly, we investigate in detail model selection, estimation and validation in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework. Finally, we analyze the effects of model uncertainty on the valuation of the cash flows and how forecasts of cash flows and interest rates translate into model parameters and affect the valuation.

insurance pricing

state price deflators

Heath-Jarrow-Morton

Författare

Jonas Alm

Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik

Göteborgs universitet

Filip Lindskog

RISKS

2227-9091 (ISSN)

Vol. 3 338-364

Ämneskategorier

Företagsekonomi

Sannolikhetsteori och statistik

DOI

10.3390/risks3030338