The impact of uncertainty on optimal emission policies
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2018

We apply a computational framework for specifying and solving sequential decision problems to study the impact of three kinds of uncertainties on optimal emission policies in a stylized sequential emission problem. We find that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) have a greater impact on optimal policies than uncertainties about the availability of effective emission reduction technologies and uncertainties about the implications of trespassing critical cumulated emission thresholds. The results show that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) call for more precautionary policies. In other words, delaying emission reductions to the point in time when effective technologies will become available is suboptimal when these uncertainties are accounted for rigorously. By contrast, uncertainties about the implications of exceeding critical cumulated emission thresholds tend to make early emission reductions less rewarding.

Författare

Nicola Botta

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Patrik Jansson

Chalmers, Data- och informationsteknik, Funktionell programmering

Cezar Ionescu

Chalmers, Data- och informationsteknik, Funktionell programmering

University of Oxford

Earth System Dynamics

2190-4979 (ISSN) 2190-4987 (eISSN)

Vol. 9 2 525-542

Verktyg för snabb analys av globala system med hjälp av språk för funktionell och villkors-programmering

Europeiska kommissionen (EU) (EC/H2020/640954), 2015-02-01 -- 2018-01-31.

Centre of excellence for Global Systems Science (CoeGSS)

Europeiska kommissionen (EU) (EC/H2020/676547), 2015-10-01 -- 2018-09-30.

Styrkeområden

Informations- och kommunikationsteknik

Energi

Drivkrafter

Hållbar utveckling

Fundament

Grundläggande vetenskaper

Ämneskategorier

Programvaruteknik

Naturgeografi

Miljövetenskap

DOI

10.5194/esd-9-525-2018

Mer information

Senast uppdaterat

2018-12-22