Robust and resilient renovation solutions in different climate change scenarios
Paper i proceeding, 2020

Building renovation is currently urgent in order to decrease the energy consumption of a building stock. In order to achieve robust renovation scenarios, uncertainty quantification is needed. Climate change scenarios are important factors and need to be included in the analysis. In this paper, three climate change scenarios are applied probabilistically for a renovation scenario using dimensionality reduction techniques and further uncertainty propagation. The results show that RCP2.6 provides more robust results and saves on average 2.10^5 CHF and 2.10^5kgCO2eq. in a building life cycle comparing to RCP 8.5. The analysis under climate change is also compared to the probabilistic calculations under current climate and the results show the underestimation of both costs and environmental impacts when climate change is not included. It can also be clearly seen that even under the best case of RCP 2.6, building renovation is urgently needed to decrease the environmental impacts and costs.


Alina Galimshina

Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH)

Maliki Moustapha

Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH)

Alexander Hollberg

Chalmers, Arkitektur och samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Byggnadsteknologi

Pierryves Padey

Haute Ecole Specialisee de Suisse occidentale

Sébastien Lasvaux

Haute Ecole Specialisee de Suisse occidentale

Bruno Sudret

Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH)

Guillaume Habert

Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH)

IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science

17551307 (ISSN) 17551315 (eISSN)

Vol. 588 3 032042

World Sustainable Built Environment - Beyond 2020
Gothenburg, Sweden,


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