Predicting regional COVID-19 hospital admissions in Sweden using mobility data
Preprint, 2021

The transmission of COVID-19 is dependent on social contacts, the rate of which have varied during the pandemic due to mandated and voluntary social distancing. Changes in transmission dynamics eventually affect hospital admissions and we have used this connection in order to model and predict regional hospital admissions in Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use an SEIR-model for each region in Sweden in which the infectivity is assumed to depend on mobility data in terms of public transport utilisation and mobile phone usage. The results show that the model can capture the timing of the first and beginning of the second wave of the pandemic. Further, we show that for two major regions of Sweden models with public transport data outperform models using mobile phone usage. The model assumes a three week delay from disease transmission to hospitalisation which makes it possible to use current mobility data to predict future admissions.

SEIR-model

COVID-19

Författare

Philip Gerlee

Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, Tillämpad matematik och statistik

Julia Karlsson

Sahlgrenska universitetssjukhuset

Ingrid Fritzell

Sahlgrenska universitetssjukhuset

Thomas Brezicka

Sahlgrenska universitetssjukhuset

Armin Spreco

Linköpings universitet

Toomas Timpka

Linköpings universitet

Ann Jöud

Lunds universitet

Styrkeområden

Informations- och kommunikationsteknik

Hälsa och teknik

Drivkrafter

Hållbar utveckling

Ämneskategorier

Matematik

Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi

Mer information

Skapat

2021-05-12