Does the death postponement phenomenon really exist?
Paper i proceeding, 2020
To check the postponement hypothesis, we analysed almost 249 thousand cases in the dataset for South African people who died in the year 2015. We took a person’s birthday as the meaningful occasion and analyse the death rate around this date using statistical models offered by survival analysis. If the hypothesis is true, it can be expected that the mortality rate should be lower a period just before the birthday and, perhaps, higher shortly afterwards.
The results of our analysis show that no postponement of death can be seen for the examined dataset. In fact, to the contrary, the data suggest that the mortality rate is higher both before and after the birthday. Speculations as to why this is the case might be a higher risk associated with the stress of expectations for the birthday as well as an earlier start of celebrations with associated departure from the recommended regime.
longevity
death rate
postponement
hazard function
survival.
Författare
Sergey Zuev
Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, Analys och sannolikhetsteori
Holger Rootzen
Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, Tillämpad matematik och statistik
SMTDA 2020 - Proceedings
turned into virtual, ,
Ämneskategorier
Miljömedicin och yrkesmedicin
Rättsmedicin
Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi