Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2022

We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.

Författare

Armin Spreco

Region Östergötland

Linköpings universitet

Anna Jöud

Skånes universitetssjukhus (SUS)

Lunds universitet

Olle Eriksson

Linköpings universitet

Kristian Soltesz

Lunds universitet

Reidar Källström

Region Östergötland

Linköpings universitet

Örjan Dahlström

Linköpings universitet

Henrik Eriksson

Linköpings universitet

Joakim Ekberg

Linköpings universitet

Region Östergötland

Carl Oscar Jonson

Linköpings universitet

Region Östergötland

Carl Johan Fraenkel

Skånes universitetssjukhus (SUS)

Torbjörn Lundh

Göteborgs universitet

Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, Tillämpad matematik och statistik

Philip Gerlee

Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, Tillämpad matematik och statistik

Göteborgs universitet

Fredrik Gustafsson

Linköpings universitet

Toomas Timpka

Region Östergötland

Linköpings universitet

Emerging Infectious Diseases

1080-6040 (ISSN) 1080-6059 (eISSN)

Vol. 28 3 564-571

Ämneskategorier

Geriatrik

Hälso- och sjukvårdsorganisation, hälsopolitik och hälsoekonomi

Annan hälsovetenskap

DOI

10.3201/eid2803.210267

PubMed

35201737

Mer information

Senast uppdaterat

2022-03-14