Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2022
We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.
Författare
Armin Spreco
Region Östergötland
Linköpings universitet
Anna Jöud
Skånes universitetssjukhus (SUS)
Lunds universitet
Olle Eriksson
Linköpings universitet
Kristian Soltesz
Lunds universitet
Reidar Källström
Region Östergötland
Linköpings universitet
Örjan Dahlström
Linköpings universitet
Henrik Eriksson
Linköpings universitet
Joakim Ekberg
Linköpings universitet
Region Östergötland
Carl Oscar Jonson
Linköpings universitet
Region Östergötland
Carl Johan Fraenkel
Skånes universitetssjukhus (SUS)
Torbjörn Lundh
Göteborgs universitet
Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, Tillämpad matematik och statistik
Philip Gerlee
Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, Tillämpad matematik och statistik
Göteborgs universitet
Fredrik Gustafsson
Linköpings universitet
Toomas Timpka
Region Östergötland
Linköpings universitet
Emerging Infectious Diseases
1080-6040 (ISSN) 1080-6059 (eISSN)
Vol. 28 3 564-571Ämneskategorier
Geriatrik
Hälso- och sjukvårdsorganisation, hälsopolitik och hälsoekonomi
Annan hälsovetenskap
DOI
10.3201/eid2803.210267
PubMed
35201737