Transition pathways for future district heating and cooling systems with thermal energy storage
Hence, a generalized methodological framework combining energy system optimization with stochastic simulations, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity assessment is developed in this study to investigate the effects of these uncertainties. Based on a variety of stochastic cases, the index named cost-saving probability (CSP) is utilized to reflect the potential of being economic attractive when comparing the energy systems. The preferred future conditions for different DHC systems are summarized in the roadmaps via proposed key performance indicators (KPIs), indicating a future promising area for DHC design. Meanwhile, the applications and roles of TES in future DHC systems were investigated. Furthermore, combined with the geographical information system-based methodologies and data sources, the proposed KPIs for the entire European building stock were calculated at the hectare level to identify the potential areas of 5GDHC.
The results reveal considerable differences between the systems as different design and operation objectives on least cost and imported electricity are set. The most sensitive factors of the CSP are area demand density, overlapping heating and cooling demand, and linear demand density for the transition to ULTDHC, 5GDHC, and individual systems, respectively. The roadmap also shows the hindering factors for different transitions, as well as the impact of the objective on imported electricity. Besides, the sensitivity analysis results reveal TES’s limited role in integrating variable renewable energy (RE) in high-efficiency DHC systems. In addition, less than 0.1% of the current European building stock has sufficient overlapping heating and cooling demands to efficiently implement 5GDHC. These potential areas are primarily found in city centres involving cooling demands from commercial and industrial processes. While a better energy performance of buildings and warmer climate in the future may decrease the heating and increase the cooling demand, the overlapping part is only slightly increased by around 4%, leading to limited additional application potentials of 5GDHC.
district heating and cooling
Thermal energy storage
Chalmers, Arkitektur och samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Byggnadsteknologi
Assessment of district heating and cooling systems transition with respect to future changes in demand profiles and renewable energy supplies
Energy Conversion and Management,; Vol. 268(2022)
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Applicability of thermal energy storage in future low-temperature district heating systems – Case study using multi-scenario analysis
Energy Conversion and Management,; Vol. 244(2021)
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Zhang, Y., Johansson, P., & Sasic Kalagasidis, A. (2023). Roadmaps for heating and cooling system transitions seen through uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
Zhang, Y., Johansson, P., & Sasic Kalagasidis, A. (2023). Quantifying overlapped heating and cooling demands and the feasibility of bi-directional systems over Europe
iTES - Innovativa kompakta värmelagringstekniker och styrtekniker för byggnader kopplade till smarta nät
Formas (2018-01228), 2019-01-01 -- 2021-12-31.
Doktorsavhandlingar vid Chalmers tekniska högskola. Ny serie: 5332
Room EE, EDIT building
Opponent: Kristina Orehounig, EMPA, Switzerland