Shipping in the EU emissions trading system: implications for mitigation, costs and modal split
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2024

EU recently decided to include shipping, meaning all intra-European shipping and 50% of extra-European voyages, in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) beginning in 2024. This article provides an early assessment of the impacts of the EU ETS on the shipping sector’s potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions for different types of ships. It further examines selected mitigation measures and the impact on modals split and costs. The study employs a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative estimates (based on data from the EU monitoring, reporting and verification system) with qualitative data and information from interviews with key actors and from previous literature. This approach aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of the EU ETS. The inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS is expected to introduce significant incentives to reduce emissions. We estimate that switching to bio-methanol at an emissions allowance price of €90–100/tCO2 will be cost-effective for a minor share of shipping segments (representing about 0.5-5% of all ships), whereas at a price above €150/tCO2 it could be cost-effective for a considerable share (potentially 75%) of ships. In the short term, the costs incurred by the EU ETS will be passed on to transport customers as a surcharge. The increased cost may, unless properly addressed, drive carbon leakage. Meanwhile, a modal shift away from shipping may occur in the roll-on, roll-off (RoRo) and roll-on passenger (RoPax) segments due to direct competition with road and rail transport and the relative ease of shifting to other modes of transport.

mitigation

EU ETS

bunker fuel

emissions trading

maritime transport

Shipping

modal shift

Författare

Jonas Flodén

Göteborgs universitet

Lars Zetterberg

IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet

Anastasia Christodoulou

World Maritime University

Panepistimion Pireos

Rasmus Parsmo

IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet

Chalmers, Mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Maritima studier

Erik Fridell

IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet

Julia Hansson

IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet

Chalmers, Mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Maritima studier

Johan Rootzén

IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet

Johan Woxenius

Göteborgs universitet

Climate Policy

1469-3062 (ISSN) 1752-7457 (eISSN)

Vol. 24 7 969-987

Ämneskategorier

Nationalekonomi

Företagsekonomi

Farkostteknik

DOI

10.1080/14693062.2024.2309167

Mer information

Senast uppdaterat

2024-08-10