Estimating countries' additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2024

Quantifying fair national shares of the remaining global carbon budget has proven challenging. Here, we propose an indicator-additional carbon accountability-that quantifies countries' responsibility for mitigation and CO2 removal in addition to achieving their own targets. Considering carbon debts since 1990 and future claims based on countries' emission pathways, the indicator uses an equal cumulative per capita emissions approach to allocate accountability for closing the mitigation gap among countries with a positive total excessive carbon claim. The carbon budget is exceeded by 576 Gigatonnes of fossil CO2 when limiting warming below 1.5 degrees C (50% probability). Additional carbon accountability is highest for the United States and China, and highest per capita for the United Arab Emirates and Russia. Assumptions on carbon debts strongly impact the results for most countries. The ability to pay for this accountability is challenging for Iran, Kazakhstan and several BRICS+ members, in contrast to the G7 members. In addition to national climate targets, the authors estimate countries' additional accountability to stay within the 1.5-degree carbon budget. They account for G7 countries having the highest carbon debts while several BRICS+ countries have high future claims.