Scenario-Based Pathways for Electrifying India’s Multimodal Passenger Transportation: Infrastructure and Critical Material Considerations

Poster (konferens), 2025

The electrification of passenger transportation is critical for reducing emissions, particularly in emerging markets like India, where multimodal transportation systems—comprising auto-rickshaws, two-wheelers, buses, cars, and trains—are essential. However, most existing research focuses on car electrification in developed countries, often overlooking the complexities and infrastructure needs of multimodal systems in developing nations. Additionally, while global attention has been given to the increasing demand for critical raw materials (CRMs), the regional dynamics and specific challenges faced by emerging markets such as India remain underexplored. This study addresses these gaps by analyzing the interaction between the EV system and CRM demand in India’s diverse passenger transportation sector.

This study develops a Dynamic Material Flow Analysis (DMFA) model to analyze EV adoption across different transportation modes in India between 2018 and 2050, considering the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the EV30@30 campaign. We assess the demand for charging infrastructure, battery capacity, and CRMs under each scenario. The analysis shows significant growth in demand for copper, lithium, and nickel, which pose the highest supply risks, especially under ambitious electrification scenarios like EV30@30. Cobalt demand may also rise sharply, while manganese is found to have the least risky supply for India in the long term. These findings highlight potential bottlenecks in the supply of key CRMs, stressing the need for efficient resource planning in the EV ecosystem.

The results of this scenario-based analysis have important implications for industries involved in EV manufacturing, infrastructure development, and CRM supply, as well as for policymakers tasked with designing national electrification strategies. Although the findings are specific to India’s multimodal transportation system, they offer insights relevant to other regions undergoing strong electrification of passenger transportation. The study emphasizes the need for careful planning and coordination across sectors to manage infrastructure expansion and material demands, ensuring a sustainable transition in line with future electrification pathways.