Future Critical Raw Material Flows: A Circular Economy Approach to the EU Car Fleet

Poster (konferens), 2025

The transition to a circular economy (CE) is a key priority for the European Union (EU) aiming to reduce dependency on finite resources, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and promote sustainable economic growth. One of the main concerns of the shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) and advanced vehicle technologies is ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (CRMs), such as lithium and cobalt, which are essential for EV batteries and other components. The Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) of EU highlights the urgent need to improve material recovery and recycling to reduce reliance on third-country imports and mitigate supply chain risks. Given the rapid evolution of vehicle fleets, there is a pressing need for studies on future material demands, enhanced recycling processes to ensure effective CRM management in alignment with CE strategies.

To address these challenges, within the FutuRaM project we have developed a comprehensive dynamic stock and flow model to track vehicle lifecycles across the EU27+4 nations from 2010 to 2050. This model integrates historical vehicle characteristic-based keys—such as vehicle type, drivetrain, cylinder size, and mass—with recent segment-based keys that better reflect emerging categories. This approach addresses a critical gap: while historical data is useful for understanding past trends, it cannot reflect the growing number of heavier and more complex vehicles over the last decade, nor account for differences between EU countries. The model offers a more precise and granular account of vehicle material flows, particularly for end-of-life (EOL) vehicles. In addition, the model is connected to detailed component and material composition data, focusing on CRMs, to analyze circular strategy opportunities such as extended vehicle lifespans, increased recycling rates, and the shift to shared mobility. These scenarios help quantify the impact of different strategies on material demand, CRM recovery, and recycling need.

The outcomes of this research are relevant for policymakers, automotive manufacturers, and recyclers in the EU and globally. Policymakers will gain insights to inform the development of CE policies and set recycling targets that align with future CRM recovery needs. Manufacturers can leverage the model to improve vehicle design for better recyclability while preparing for material demands driven by the rise of EVs and other advanced technologies. Recyclers will benefit from accurate forecasts of material availability, enabling them to optimize recycling infrastructure and recovery processes. Although tailored to the EU27+4 context, this approach can be adapted to other regions globally, providing a framework to improve resource efficiency and support the global transition toward a CE in the automotive sector.