Electricity consumption and its determinants in rural Mozambique – At the edge of the electricity grid

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2025

The lack of reliable data on electricity consumption is one of the main obstacles to selecting the right supply technologies and allocating resources to achieve universal electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa. Using data collected from on-site surveys, this study aims to estimate electricity consumption in rural Mozambique at the edge of the electricity grid and examine the factors that influence it. The consumption is estimated for households, community institutions, and productive users in four different localities. Three of the localities are off-grid and rely largely on Solar Home Systems, while one is a small town and has access to grid electricity. To analyze the determinants of electricity consumption, multiple linear regression models are used. The results show that households account for >62 % of the total electricity consumption. The average household consumption in the grid-electrified town (2.54 kWh/day) is significantly higher than in the off-grid localities (0.04 to 0.24 kWh/day). Furthermore, the load profiles of households in the grid-electrified town and off-grid localities differ significantly. However, productive users consume the most electricity per user in all localities. The regression analysis shows a positive and strong relationship between consumption and appliance ownership, with refrigerators and televisions having the most significant influence in the grid-powered locality, and cellphones and LED lamps having the biggest effect in the off-grid areas. The study demonstrates the substantial spatial and sectoral differences in electricity consumption in rural Mozambique. It also reveals how access to grid electricity, productive use, and appliance ownership shape electricity consumption in rural Mozambique. Understanding these dynamics is thus crucial for accurate demand forecasting and optimal rural electrification planning.