Ship accessibility assessment based on POLARIS and icebreaking capabilities in Arctic area

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2026

Accelerated sea ice melt increases uncertainty about accessibility of potential ice routes. This study proposes an Arctic shipping accessibility model, focusing on assessing the impact of ship icebreaking capabilities on accessibility. A spatiotemporal analysis of Arctic ice conditions in 2022 was conducted based on the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS), taking into account the ship ice-class, which directly influences the ship's navigation risk and speed. According to their icebreaking capabilities, six types of ships were divided into high, medium, and low ice-class to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of Arctic shipping accessibility. Accessibility is then validated using data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) to assess the differences between the model and observed ship behavior. The analysis shows that both ship icebreaking capability and ice condition distribution critically influence navigation windows and accessibility. Furthermore, systematic bias is identified in the speed settings of the accessibility model. Additional evaluation metrics also indicates that the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage should be considered separately, with specific recommendations provided for model optimization. These results enhance the understanding of ice navigation patterns and navigable boundaries, thereby supporting the improvement of Arctic shipping regulatory policies.